Recent projections from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicate a significant shift in energy consumption within the commercial sector.
According to the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025) report, electricity used for commercial computing—covering data centers, servers, desktops, and laptops—may soon surpass traditional end uses like space cooling, ventilation, and lighting.
Currently, computing accounts for approximately 8% of the commercial sector’s electricity consumption. However, by 2050, this share could rise to as much as 20%, making it the dominant energy end use in commercial buildings. This explosive growth is driven by increasing reliance on data centers, cloud services, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure.
Importance
The growth in computing energy demand is expected to outpace improvements in energy efficiency. Historically, advances in technology have helped moderate energy consumption, but the projected surge suggests that digital infrastructure will increasingly drive overall energy use in the commercial sector. This trend could reverse the declining pattern of energy intensity (kilowatt-hours per square foot) seen in recent decades.
Data centers—especially those housing server farms—are the most energy-intensive component of this growth. By 2050, as much as 7% of U.S. commercial floorspace may be dedicated to meeting data center energy needs, including cooling and ventilation. Since data centers generate heat and require significant air exchange, their expansion also increases demand for space cooling and ventilation, further amplifying energy consumption.
The latest data indicates that office buildings and standalone data centers are the primary locations for this growth. Data center rooms are most prevalent in healthcare facilities and large office complexes, highlighting the increasing importance of digital infrastructure across various sectors.
It’s important to note that the projections are based on current trends and assumptions. It doesn’t account for potential technological or revolutionary advancements such as highly energy-efficient AI technologies or initiatives aimed at reducing data center energy use, or other changes such as population migration, weather patterns, or policy that could also potentially influence these forecasts.
As digital infrastructure becomes a central driver of energy consumption, organizations and policymakers must prioritize sustainable data center design, energy-efficient cooling solutions, and renewable energy integration. Proactive planning will be essential to manage future load growth and minimize environmental impact.
The shift toward increased energy use for commercial computing underscores the need for innovative energy strategies in the digital age. As we move toward a more advanced future, understanding these trends will be crucial for building resilient, sustainable, and energy-efficient commercial environments. Proactive planning will be essential to manage future load growth and minimize environmental impact.
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